And it’s going to get worse. The dangers we’re facing are enormous.
We are not ready. We take false reassurance from our past when we enjoyed guaranteed food supplies from anywhere in the world. The current plan is to rely on market forces – and that supermarkets will save the day – but it’s one that’s short-sighted and unsustainable.
Together, we can do something about it. Taking action offers a big opportunity for many, particularly our farmers.
Building food security must be led by regions and cities, with national government providing laws, policies and devolved powers that local agencies need to act decisively.
Created by the charity, Our Food Trust, this website is based on the report Just in Case: narrowing the UK civil food resilience gap, written by Professor Tim Lang for the National Preparedness Commission.
“The state people are in – whether struggling and dragged down by vulnerabilities, or with capacities, networks, communities and more prepared – determines whether and how they can be resilient. Food resilience requires active citizens, not passive consumers left defenceless in shock. Crises are shaped by the status of people.”
Just in Case: narrowing the UK civil food resilience gap
| An adequate, diverse and safe food supply | A resilient society that can pull together |
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We need a large increase in UK food growing for regional and local markets. 95% of our food comes from nine supermarkets. We also need many more types of food. Today, we mainly eat only 12 plants and five animals. |
We need action to build food more reliable supplies and prepare for emergencies at all levels – communities, regions, nations – strongly enabled from the top: a ‘whole society’ approach. We need to protect the most vulnerable families. |
And the legal requirement of governments to ensure all people are fed at all times – not just in emergencies.
With more grown locally and regionally by sustainable means – making food supplies more resilient.
Instead of ‘just-in-time’ with no slack at all, 'just-in-case', with more storage ready for emergencies.
From national governments to households. Decentralised, regional/local and collaborative effort is more resilient. ENGAGE with the public: honest about potential problems, but also practical about what can be done.
Preventative action, such as stockpiling essentials and organising mass catering, and, in crises, mobilisation of civilians to protect food, based on the UK’s vibrant community, regional and voluntary sectors.
“Part of the policy problem facing the UK on food resilience is that government’s default position is… ‘leave it to Tesco et al’ – when not even mighty retailers can be relied on to prevent climate heating or land flooding or mass zoonoses outbreaks or global conflicts affecting chokepoints.”
Just in Case: narrowing the UK civil food resilience gap
Many things. And at least one is sure to happen soon. Crises can be like dominoes – one can trigger another, escalating the impact. According to the Global Report on Food Crises (GRFC 2024), in 2016, 48 countries experienced at least one food crisis. By 2023, 59 had done so.
But knowing what the dangers are means that, together, we can put plans in place to address the risks before it’s too late.
Growing food is highly vulnerable to storms, flooding, droughts and fires.
2023 to 2024 was the wettest 18-month period since records began in 1834. 60% of Grade 1 land in the UK is at risk of flooding (Flood Zone 3, as defined by the Environment Agency).
About 50% of our fruit and vegetables come from areas like Southern Europe, which are particularly at risk from overheating. They will protect their and their neighbours’ supply before the UK’s.
Most of the horticulture in UK is in Lincolnshire and Cambridgeshire, the most vulnerable parts of the country to flood, drought and sea-level rises.
Climate overheating also threatens pollinating insects.
Russia invaded Ukraine and stopped its export of food through the Black Sea.
The Houthis are obstructing our food supplies through the Red Sea.
Both situations could escalate. These are two of only 14 international trade arteries around the world on which we depend.
Nearly half of the UK’s food is imported from overseas, and dependence is growing. 60 to 70% of this comes through our seaports, from Grimsby to Southampton. These would be vulnerable in a war.
Our food supply chains, from international logistics to our supermarket system, to buying food on mobile phones, are reliant on centralised software systems and satellites.
These stand out as points of vulnerability for attack, either in war or though cybercrime.
In the USA, the FBI found that, in 2022, food and agriculture was the fifth highest sector affected by ransomware.
In a survey of food and agriculture businesses, 35% of respondents had no measurement of cyber risk.
In July 2024, a CrowdStrike software malfunction for Microsoft Windows caused worldwide disruption.
Between 2022 and 2024, food prices rose by 26%. In the decade before that, prices only rose by 9%.
In 2024, 44% of UK adults reported to the ONS that they were buying less food.
Many factors cause food prices to rise:
All these have already happened in recent years or are happening now.
Another pandemic is considered the strongest risk in the UK’s National Risk Register.
There is an ongoing risk of diseases jumping from animals, as did HIV and Ebola. This risk is made worse by the over-use of antimicrobials in the agri-food sector.
This is a slow-burn danger, with the biggest potential of any risk to undermine our ability to grow food, through loss of soil and pollinators.
These are felt most acutely by the least well-off and immediately affect how and what people eat.
The UK’s food factories are not ready for major electricity outages.
We depend on electricity to cook food or order it. Shops depend on electricity to sell food. Our water supply depends on electricity.
Nearly half of the UK’s food is imported from overseas, and our dependence is growing. We import over 80% of our fruit and over 50% of our vegetables.
We import about £10bn worth of fruit and vegetables, and export £1bn.
We’re losing out because horticulture is relatively profitable: despite only using 1% of land in UK, horticulture produces 20% of the value of crops in UK, according to Just in Case: 7 steps to narrow the UK civil food resilience gap.
Most of our food imports come from Europe. We’ve created new trade barriers that increase prices. We’ve also withdrawn from participation in European food decision-making, reduced inspection of food imports and have left the EU’s Rapid Alert System for Food and Feed.
Restrictions on immigrant labour have affected horticulture, dairy, food manufacturing and hospitality.
Only 1% of infant formula consumed in the UK is produced here. Breastfeeding promotion is weak. Most babies in the UK are reliant on formula, and only three companies provide the entire UK supply . There are no plans for protecting infant food in an emergency.
We have a ‘just-in-time’ food supply system – it’s dependent on tight logistics and optimised for profitability and efficiency.
Nothing is held in reserve in storage in case there is a problem. About one in five lorries on the road are moving food.
The system is locked into major infrastructure that cannot easily be changed, such as motorways and warehousing alongside them.
Nine companies in the UK own 95% of the retail market, making them gatekeepers of the survival of the population.
Security is found in diverse supply chains, with more and smaller retail outlets making us safer.
The food market is driven by price, but in times of emergency, price will not be the only priority. Nutrition and health will be strategic priorities.
Food marketing is geared towards maximising consumption, which has not been helpful for health and consumption.
Manufacturers of processed food spend 30x more on promotion than the UK Government spends on promoting healthy eating.
But in a crisis, such communication power could be an asset.
At the same time as food prices are increasing, disposable incomes of all but the wealthiest are decreasing. There has been a cost-of-living crisis since the 2008 economic crash.
Cutting back on food is easier to do than cutting back on energy and housing costs.
In April 2024, 87% of people believed that cost of living is the most important issue facing the country. 55% of people who had just experienced a cost-of-living increase said food was the most important factor.
The percentage of people in food insecure households went from 7% in 2021/22 to 11% in 2022/23. In 2023, 5.7 million people experienced food insecurity.
17% of children lived in food insecure households in 2022/23.
The unequal ability in a food crisis to pay high very prices and to stockpile food is a recipe for social disorder.
The Food Foundation has estimated that healthy, nutritious food is nearly three times more expensive than obesogenic unhealthy products – £8.51/kcal compared to £3.25.
This means that the cost-of-living crisis is driving poor health, as it squeezes spending on food.
The UK offers no sustainable dietary guidelines, only the nutrient-focussed Eatwell Guide.
The Governmental Resilience Framework does not consider food.
The National Risk Register only references food contamination among 89 risks. Community Risk Registers across the UK are similarly deficient.
The UK Government has a track record of rejecting proposals for food strategies, such as the National Food Strategy proposal in 2021.
Companies get advice on food defence, but not the public.
The Department for Environment, Food & Rural Affairs is directionless on the issue of food, despite its name.
Lack of readiness was exposed during Covid in the emergency food parcel system for the most medically vulnerable people. The parcels didn’t contain enough nutritious foods, and some were sent to the wrong people.
Local authorities’ budgets, provided by UK Government, were cut by 31% between 2009/10 and 2021/22. This undermines their ability to think long-term about the wellbeing of their people.
A new and more profitable system of growing food needs new skills, particularly in areas such as horticulture.
There used to be a nationally spread system of land colleges, which could respond to local conditions. That has been in steady decline.
A marketing-driven dependence on factory foods has led to a loss in cooking skills. A 2022 survey found only one in three British people describe themselves as very confident to cook a meal from scratch without a recipe.
Preparing food in the event of a power failure is even more of a challenge.
There is very little public knowledge about how food systems work and how to operate them without access to normal technology such as mobile phones.
40% of arable land is used to grow crops to feed animals, with more than 50% of our wheat harvest used for this purpose.
This in addition to using 850,000ha of land outside the UK, mostly in Latin America, to grow food for animals in the UK.
New subsidy systems are not attending fully to the food needs of the country. An NFU poll in 2023 found that 84% of people think food production targets are either as important or more important than environmental targets for farming.
Greenbelts around cities are being used for conservation, even on the best land for growing food for the city. In the Bristol green belt, there is more golf than food growing – only one farm remains.
Food waste becomes an intense problem in times of scarcity and crisis. 60% of food waste in the UK happens in homes – about one third of all purchased food.
But this presents an opportunity for households to take steps to reduce this waste in a crisis.
